Scientific abstract:

The recent advancements toward national electrification of the US have led to rapid manufacturing of massive quantities of electric vehicles (EVs) that utilize high amounts of lithium-ion batteries (LiBs). Such development poses the risk of rapid exhaustion of primary critical metals and excessive waste battery generation. Critical metals like cobalt, nickel, and manganese serve to be excellent precursors in the battery manufacturing industry as they can be recycled indefinitely without losing their physical or chemical characteristics. The circularity of these critical metals in an economy can be advanced by analyzing potential reverse logistics scenarios based on the spatial construction of cost-optimized battery recycling facilities. Here, we demonstrate the development of a regional structure of battery recycling facilities and spent battery collection centers in the US under deep future uncertainties correlated with the variation in market share of LiB chemistry composition and the changes in recycling technology. Using RELOG: Reverse Logistics Optimization, a simulation of battery collection and recovery was created over a 40-year timeline, with a LiB chemistry composition of 62% NCA and 38% NMC reflecting the current market share of cathode chemistries in the EV sector. Simulating three specific recycling technology cases, viz. pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct, the preliminary result provided the spatial distribution of collection centers, disassembly plants, and battery recycling facilities, along with the cost and emission data for each case. Principally, the development of direct recycling facilities across the nation came out to be the most cost-optimal solution when including recovered material resale value. A comparative assessment is anticipated to be carried out for this baseline scenario with two extreme future scenarios, one where the market share comprises 12% NCA, 38% NMC, and 50% LFP; and the other being 12% NCA and 88% LFP, which complies with the current trend towards reliance on LFP-based batteries.